The Champions League enters its crucial phase this Wednesday with the eighth and final matchday. Away to Brest, Real Madrid must secure a good result to keep their hopes alive for the Round of 16, where two potential opponents await.
A true specialist in the Champions League, Real Madrid is struggling to adapt to the new competition format introduced by UEFA this season. For the first time ever, the group stage will still be ongoing in January, now structured as a mini-league featuring eight matches—four at home and four away against different opponents. This Wednesday, the final matchday of this group stage will be played across Europe. Currently sitting 16th in the standings with 12 points, Carlo Ancelotti’s side will face Brest, who are 13th with 13 points, at the Roudourou—a stadium known to be a tough venue for Mbappé and his teammates.
Real Madrid’s slim chances of making the Top 8
Both teams have already secured a spot in the play-offs (the Round of 32), but Brest and Real Madrid will be fighting for a victory this Wednesday to break into the Top 8, which grants direct qualification to the Round of 16. While the French side has a strong chance of making the Top 8, Real Madrid’s probability is only 2.9% due to competition from teams like Bayern Munich, Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, and others, who are in a much better position.
Realistically, Los Blancos will likely have to go through the play-offs to reach the Round of 16. After the final matchday, which kicks off at 20:00 GMT, Madrid’s definitive opponent for the play-offs will be revealed—unless they pull off a miracle to secure direct qualification. Based on their current 16th-place ranking, their potential Round of 16 opponents are already taking shape.
Liverpool or Barcelona: Real Madrid’s possible Round of 16 opponents?
While nothing is set in stone due to potential last-minute shifts in the standings after today’s fixtures, the current scenario indicates that the teams finishing 15th, 16th, 17th, and 18th will face the 1st or 2nd seeds (Liverpool or Barcelona) in the Round of 16. Another major disadvantage for Madrid is that if they fail to win against Brest and finish between 15th and 17th place, the second leg of the Round of 16 will be played away at Anfield or the Camp Nou.
As it stands, a victory with a strong goal difference could help Madrid avoid these two giants. Already defeated by Liverpool in this group stage (2-0 at Anfield on matchday five) and suffering two heavy defeats against Barcelona (4-0 and 5-2), Vinicius Junior and his teammates would be wise to steer clear of these teams in the near future.
Even though Real Madrid’s performances have improved, there is still much work to be done to compete effectively against attack-minded teams with dangerous offensive players. It is important to note that Madrid must first navigate the play-offs before even thinking about the Round of 16. After the match against Brest, the Merengues’ fate will become much clearer.
Leave a Reply