With just a few hours to go before the first leg of the Champions League play-offs between Manchester City and Real Madrid at the Etihad, the pressure is mounting. While much has been said about the attacking strength of both teams, the other crucial aspect—defence—raises concerns. Between the Citizens and Los Blancos, the numbers reveal which team is weaker at the back.
One of the last two Champions League winners will not make it to the Round of 16 this season. After a mixed group stage where they failed to secure a direct spot in the Top 8 of Europe’s best clubs—synonymous with automatic qualification for the knockout rounds—Manchester City and Real Madrid will face off in the play-offs. This Tuesday, the first leg of this massive tie will take place at the Etihad Stadium. For this match, Pep Guardiola and his men have no intention of showing mercy to Madrid’s depleted defence. However, when it comes to defensive stats, Ancelotti’s side holds up better than expected.
Manchester City weaker defensively than Real Madrid
While many Madrid fans and Spanish football observers worry about Real Madrid’s backline—deprived of key players due to injuries—statistics show that the team is actually more resilient defensively than the Citizens. In fact, in La Liga, Los Blancos have conceded just 22 goals while scoring 51, whereas Manchester City have conceded 35 goals (scoring 48) in 23 Premier League matches. As revealed by our colleagues at The Athletic, City’s defence appears more vulnerable than Real Madrid’s.
It must be said that this season, the English side is far from its best. Currently sitting fifth in the Premier League, City have struggled defensively despite boasting stars like Rúben Dias, Manuel Akanji, John Stones, Joško Gvardiol, and Nathan Aké. In the Champions League, Guardiola’s side has conceded 14 goals in eight matches, compared to 12 for Madrid. Given the current situation, Los Blancos could hope to exploit City’s defensive frailties, which are no longer as solid as in previous seasons.
An unpredictable clash ahead
Just like Real Madrid, Manchester City’s attacking power is undeniable. The key challenge in this two-legged tie will be defensive management. At Real Madrid, all eyes will be on Raúl Asensio and Aurélien Tchouaméni, who will step into the centre-back roles for this high-stakes encounter in the absence of Rüdiger, Alaba, and Éder Militão. With Lucas Vázquez also ruled out on the right flank, either Ferland Mendy—who has been tested in this position by Ancelotti—or Federico Valverde, who has already filled in at right-back this season, is expected to start.
This promises to be a thrilling double-header, with both teams carrying uncertainties and weaknesses. In his pre-match press conference, Pep Guardiola acknowledged Madrid’s defensive solidity, highlighting how Los Blancos have coped well despite their injuries, thanks to Raúl Asensio and the rest of the backline. However, whether they can hold firm against Erling Haaland and another attacking threat, Savinho, remains to be seen.
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