After this week’s round of 16, the Champions League has reached the quarter-finals, which will kick off in April. Although Real Madrid has already eliminated two giants and positioned itself as a favourite, Opta Analytics surprises by revealing four other favourites for the title.
As with every season, predictions abound for the various competitions. Besides bookmakers, who constantly update their odds at every stage, media outlets specialising in the collection of analytical data on clubs or players also reveal their forecasts. Speaking of predictions, that’s exactly what Opta Analyst has done right after the Champions League round of 16. Following the qualification of the last teams for the quarter-finals, the specialised media revealed the chances of winning the title, and, against all odds, Real Madrid is far from the mark.
Real Madrid only has a 13.6% chance
The Champions League is famously known as Real Madrid’s tournament, having already claimed 15 trophies and ousted major contenders such as Manchester City and Atlético Madrid. However, Opta Analyst estimates that the final victory is more likely to go to FC Barcelona. According to the predictions, the Catalans, who will face Borussia Dortmund in the quarter-finals, have a 20.4% chance of winning this season’s Champions League. Right behind Barça are Paris Saint-Germain with 19.3% and Arsenal in third place with 16.8%.
To find Real Madrid in Opta Analyst’s predictions, one must look down to fifth place. With just a 13.6% chance of winning the Champions League, Carlo Ancelotti’s team lags far behind Inter Milan, positioned fourth with a 16.4% chance. As for the three remaining teams in the quarter-finals, Bayern Munich holds just a 9.7% chance, Aston Villa 2.8%, and finally Dortmund with only 1%.
Arsenal favoured in the quarter-final clash
According to Opta Analyst’s predictions, which take into account data on the various teams and their performances to rank them, Arsenal is more likely to beat Real Madrid in the quarter-finals. Despite the incredible history between the Madrid side and the Champions League, bookmakers estimate that the Gunners have a 53% chance of qualifying for the semi-finals. With 47% on paper, Carlo Ancelotti’s team will have to go above and beyond to overcome Mikel Arteta’s side.
Right after the round of 16, Jorge Valdano, former player and legendary coach of Los Blancos, warned that they would need to perform much better than in their match against Atlético to stand a chance against Arsenal. It’s worth noting that, in past editions, Florentino Pérez’s club has often been underestimated regarding their ability to overturn supposedly stronger teams. This year, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Opta’s predictions fall apart if Vinícius Júnior, Kylian Mbappé, and Raúl Asencio shine against the Gunners.
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