Champions League – After the seventh and penultimate matchday of the group stage, Real Madrid still have a slim chance of securing direct qualification to the Round of 16. The three scenarios for this possibility are detailed in the following article.
Beaten in Lille (1-0), at the Bernabéu by AC Milan (3-1), and in Liverpool (2-0), Real Madrid have made their task more difficult in this season’s new UEFA Champions League format. With more matches and the fierce competition for places in the Round of 16, Carlo Ancelotti’s team is still not directly qualified for the next stage. After an emphatic 5-1 victory over RB Salzburg during the seventh matchday of the group stage on Wednesday night at the Bernabéu—the club’s fourth win in the competition—Los Blancos now have 12 points and are just steps away from the Top 8, which guarantees direct qualification.
Real Madrid’s three scenarios to avoid the play-offs
Currently competing in several tournaments, Carlo Ancelotti’s team has very little chance to rest unless they secure a spot in the Top 8. Currently guaranteed at least a play-off spot in this Champions League thanks to their 16th position among the 36 teams in the competition, Real Madrid can simply avoid any unpleasant surprises by fully capitalising on their 2.9% chance and delivering a stellar performance against Brest next week.
Indeed, with the eighth and final group stage matchday taking place next week, Carlo Ancelotti and his squad can give themselves a chance of breaking into the Top 8 with a convincing victory over the French side Brest. The first condition for this possibility is, of course, to defeat the modest French side, while the second condition involves maximising their goal difference to overtake Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund (a tougher challenge if they also win) and to outpace Juventus and Celtic.
With 12 points, the same as Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich, but with a goal difference of +5 (one less than Bayern and three less than Dortmund), Real Madrid will need to score heavily next Wednesday. Regarding the third scenario for direct qualification to the next stage without needing the play-offs, Los Blancos will need to hope for slip-ups from Lille, Feyenoord, Monaco, Aston Villa, and Bayer Leverkusen, who are all just ahead with 13 points—only one point more.
Can Real Madrid really avoid the play-offs?
Given the current situation, nothing is lost for Los Blancos. Considering things could have been far more complicated if clubs like Leverkusen, Brest, Dortmund, or Bayern Munich hadn’t lost their seventh group match, the odds can still shift in Real Madrid’s favour. For the final group match of the competition, a comfortable victory should be achievable, as Brest remains an average team in the French league.
With Kylian Mbappé back in form, Jude Bellingham’s magic, and a potential standout performance from Rodrygo Goes, who will replace Vinícius Júnior (suspended for this final match due to an accumulation of yellow cards), Ancelotti’s team should, barring a catastrophe, claim victory in France next week and hope for the best. It’s worth noting that if they fail to secure direct qualification for the Round of 16, Real Madrid will face a play-off match in february against formidable opponents. Fingers crossed.
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