The group stage of the 2025 Champions League has barely concluded, and the predictions for the final winner are already emerging. According to Opta, Real Madrid has almost no chance of lifting this year’s trophy. The odds look bleak for Los Blancos.
The Champions League is the biggest club football competition in the world. This season, it follows a new format, offering more matches and greater suspense. After a revamped group stage in a mini-league format, with each team playing eight matches, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, PSG, and Manchester City finished outside the Top 8, which grants direct qualification to the Round of 16. To join teams like Barcelona, Liverpool, and Arsenal, who navigated the group stage successfully, they must go through the play-offs, which begin this Tuesday with a blockbuster clash between City and Real.
Real Madrid’s chances of winning the 2025 UCL
Considering the current form of various teams and their performances, Opta, which collects and analyses player and team data, has revealed its prediction for the 2025 Champions League winner. Ahead of the play-offs, the specialised outlet clearly indicates that Real Madrid has a 53% chance of reaching the Round of 16, 32% for the quarter-finals, 16.4% for the semi-finals, and 8.7% for the final. As for lifting the trophy, Los Blancos have only a 4.4% chance. Carlo Ancelotti’s team ranks sixth among the contenders for this year’s title.
According to Opta, Liverpool have the highest probability of winning the Champions League this season. With a 24.6% chance of claiming the trophy, Mohamed Salah’s Reds lead the way, ahead of Arsenal (16.6%). In third place is Inter Milan with 14.5%. Meanwhile, Barcelona (9.5%) and PSG (6.3%) round out the top five. Real Madrid’s play-off opponent, Manchester City, is only 10th, with a mere 3.2% chance. Struggling defensively, Pep Guardiola’s side is not expected to progress past the play-offs.
Based on Opta’s percentages, Real Madrid are the favourites to eliminate City in the play-offs.
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